A RethinkX report provides for three major disruptions that will change the world over the next few years. One such disruption will take place in mobility. According to his report of August 2021, the disruption of mobility will take place in two phases.
In the first phase, electric vehicles will displace internal combustion motor vehicles because electric vehicles will reduce mobility costs. The transmission of an electric vehicle may last seven times as long as the transmission of an internal combustion engine. Electric vehicles will be able to be in service for most of the day and therefore there will be a reduction in the cost per kilometre of mobility. On the other hand, the cost of operating electric vehicles is already lower than the cost of operating internal combustion motor vehicles and the initial costs are coming up with the fall in the price of batteries. This will mean that by the end of the 2020s all new cars produced will be electric. Manufacturing internal combustion motor vehicles will collapse.
This first phase will be overtaken by a second phase driven by the economy of self-driving electric vehicles that will provide mobility as a service. Internal combustion motor vehicles will be replaced by autonomous electric vehicle fleets owned by mobility services organisations on demand. Self-driving technology will remove the labor cost once it is available.
